Category Archives: Security

Peña Nieto on the front cover of TIME magazine

TIME EPN

Last 16 February, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto made the front cover of TIME magazine. This issue spark off a heated debated in social media in Mexico, criticising Michael Crowley, the author, and TIME for allegedly “selling out” themselves to the Peña Nieto government.

As Crowley rightly points out, Peña Nieto only won the presidential election with 38% of the votes and therefore it is evident that his detractors react this way. I agree that perhaps the title of the story would have been better with an interrogation mark at the end: “SAVING MEXICO?”, but I must concede that the author presents both sides of the same coin. He highlights achievements and strengths of the country, but also points out the numerous challenges that the current government still has to overcome.

At the same time, I must recognise the sharp Mexican humor to transform the cover into this one.

In any case, I strongly invite you to read the article (or Spanish version) and make your own judgement.

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Filed under Corruption, Democracy, Development, Foreign investment, Macroeconomics, Mexico, News brief, Security, Uncategorized

PEÑA NIETO’S CHALLENGE: CRIMINAL CARTEL AND RULE OF LAW IN MEXICO

International Crisis Group (ICG) recently published a report on criminal cartels activity in Mexico and the government’s strategy against them. The document presents an analysis of the situation and revises the strategies implemented by previous PAN government and the challenges and opportunities to the current administration.

crimenThe report highlights the participation of the three main political parties in the Pacto por Mexico proposed by Peña Nieto’s administration. The pact allowed the government to pass several major reforms, but in this particular case, the three parties backed up the security plan launched by Peña Nieto. ICG notes that the former PAN administration implemented a strategy to “fight a war” but if Peña Nieto wishes to finish with the violence in Mexico, his government needs to include additional actions, such as institutional capacity building, reinforcing police and justice systems and improving social inclusion programs.

The violent situation in Mexico is not only a challenge for the country, but also for Mexico’s Northern neighbour. The report indicates that the violence escalated after the US legislative ban in assault weapons ended in 2004. Mexico is confronted to domestic pressure to finish with criminal activity and externally to stop the flow of narcotics. Furthermore, Mexico’s situation seems relevant for other countries around the globe facing similar circumstances.

To download full report click here.

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Filed under Analysis, Corruption, Mexico, Security

5 DE MAYO, MONROE DOCTRINE AND US-MEX RELATIONS

Monroe-doctrine-1896

In 1861, a large contingent of French, British and Spanish troops arrived on Mexican shores to support the imposition of Maximilian of Habsbourg as emperor of Mexico. The French contingent advanced to Mexico City and encountered resistance in the city of Puebla where, on the 5th of May of 1862, they were defeated by a small Mexican battalion  and eventually fled the country.

Every year on the 5th of May large festivities take place to celebrate the Mexican victory  in the Batalla de Puebla against the French Army. To the surprise of many, 5 de mayo is not Mexico’s national day (Mexico commemorates its national day on the anniversary of its independence, 16th of September). In reality,  5th of May is only one of many other celebrations in the Mexican historical calendar. It actually has become famous around the world thanks to huge range of festivities organised by Mexican-American communities in the US.

The battle of Puebla is significant not only because a small unprepared Mexican army defeated and expelled the French from Mexican territory, but because it represents the last attempt of European powers to invade American territory. To the satisfaction of President James Monroe, his famous doctrine “America for the Americans” had finally become a reality (I would like to stress that we refer to America as the continent, and Americans as the population of this continent and not to the narrow and commonly used reference of America as the United States and Americans as its citizens).

Throughout the history of relations between the US and Latin America, the Monroe Doctrine has had many and, in some cases, quite broad interpretations. Although military interventions have become rather rare, cover operations and other forms of interference have been widely used in the continent. The end of the Cold War shifted the attention of the US to other regions of the world. However, despite fervorous calls for national sovereignty, there were still claims of substantial US engagement in Latin America’s domestic affairs.

Unsurprisingly, Mexico has not been spared and in reality perhaps has suffered more than any other nation in the region. Geographical proximity, economic interdependence, social interconnection and common challenges have resulted in a very  complex relationship between the US and Mexico; but at the same time, this complexity has allowed the multiplication of numerous avenues for mutual collaboration.

During his recent visit to Mexico, President Obama highlighted the importance for the two countries to strengthen the bilateral relationship. Both Presidents focused their discussions on increasing efforts for further collaboration on trade and investment, energy security, education, innovation and competitiveness.

Nevertheless, it did not take long for criticisms on both sides of the border. Security and immigration, crucial issues for the bilateral agenda, had not been sufficiently discussed and were barely mentioned in official communiques. On the Mexican side, despite general agreement that these two topics should not overrun the bilateral relation, Mexico would like to see further US engagement in this regard (for instance, the immigration reform and larger arms control). While on the American side, criticism has focused on the importance of deepening cooperation to fight organised crime and see Peña Nieto’s measures to scale down US intelligence and security agents involvement in Mexico, as a sign of mistrust.

Critique became particularly sharp when Mexico’s new administration policies were compared to the wider cooperation and greater access that existed with the previous PAN government. Regular surveyance flights over Mexican territory, the establishment of ‘coordinating’ offices in Mexico City and Nuevo León and the free circulation of armed agents of FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation), DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration), CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), ICS (Immigration and Citizenship Services), ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives) and NSA (National Security Agency) does not appear to be the kind of close bilateral cooperation that PRI would prefer.

Despite restrictions on US involvement in the fight against organised crime and other domestic issues, it appears that we are far away from a definite adiós to the Monroe Doctrine in the hemisphere. Certainly, old style military interventions seem unlikely, but new IT resources, the interdependence of global markets and transnational societies have provided a new arsenal of interference tools that perhaps can prove to be ever more effective than traditional ones.….

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Filed under Mexico, Security, Uncategorized

WEF Latin America 2013

WEF

Since yesterday, more than 400 personalities, including heads of states and representatives from the private sector, academia and civil society, are gathered in the Peruvian capital, Lima, to participate in the 2013 World Economic Forum (WEF) Latin America. They will  discuss about challenges and  opportunities around the topic of “delivering growth and strengthening societies”.  Latin America has registered constant rates of economic growth in recent years.  However, there are big challenges ahead in terms of inequality and exclusion, and especially insecurity.

The program of the  event is organised around the following three pillars:

1) Modernizing economies for growth.

2) Strengthening society through innovation.

3) Building resilience for sustainable development.

Follow live panel discussions on: http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/dg_selection_process_e.htm

Program:  http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-latin-america-2013/programme

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Filed under Development, News brief, Security

Here we go again? Brazil and Turkey trying to defuse Iran?

O Estado de São Paulo is reporting that the Brazilian and Turkish foreign ministers are talking of relaunching the May 2010 Tehran declaration on nuclear fuel swaps in an effort to prevent an armed attack on Iran. For those who don’t remember, the reaction from the US was, at best, frigid, or to quote one US diplomat talking off the record at the time “Hilary was pissed”. The clever thing that Brazil’s Antonio Patriota and Turkey’s Ahmet Davutoglu have done this time is to pull in another player, namely Sweden’s Carl Bildt.

Reviving the 2010 deal is likely to be received poorly by the nuclear powers trying to pull Iran back from the proliferation brink. That Brazil is pushing such an idea on the margins of this year’s UN General Assembly should not come as a surprise — Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff was explicit in her address that the world has too many weapons of mass destruction and should work to get rid of them all and focus on hunger and poverty instead. While it is hard to argue with her point, we might also ask awkward questions for Brazil about diverting resources away from small arms and warplane manufacturing towards development-facilitating activities, two lucrative export industries for her country.

Dilma is less beholden the hard left of her Workers Party than Lula was — we need only look at how she stared down recent labour action in Brazil — but still needs to throw the odd bone to the Party old guard who have found memories of resisting the empire with their Iranian brothers in the 1970s. What probably matters more in this instance is Brazilian desires to squash anything that might create a precedent for unilateral or multilateral violation of sovereignty, a principle that is utterly sacrosanct for Brazilian foreign policy. After all, another key theme in Dilma’s address to open the UNGA was that the doctrine of “Responsibility to Protect” should be accompanied with a parallel “Responsibility While Protecting”. In practical terms this would likely leave those participating in any internationally sanctioned intervention in a country such as, say Syria, liable for collateral damage. Given the difficulty of getting those with the capability to actually undertake R2P actions to participate, the Brazilian coda, if accepted, would make the potential legal and political costs of such missions even more prohibitively high. And with no R2P being practiced another threat to sovereignty is defused.

All this cynical analysis aside, hopefully the world will get lucky and Sweden will find a way to work with the established team of Brazil and Turkey to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and prevent another conflagration in the Middle East.

–Sean Burges

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Filed under Analysis, Brazil, Foreign Policy / Diplomacy, Security

Two fascinating articles on drugs in Rio de Janeiro and Brazil

The Detroit News has published a fascinating article on the decline of crack sales in Rio de Janeiro. The story told is that the drug lords in Rio are realizing that the profits from selling crack do not make up for the social problems and governance issues that they consequently have to deal with. The killer quote: “This wasn’t a drug for the rich; it was hitting their own communities.” Worth a read if you want a quick intro to the complex socio-political economy of narcotics and favelas in Rio de Janeiro.

The problems that crack causes in Brazil are taken up in a Wall Street Journal article that explains the logic to a new law that has just made it through the lower house of congress to impose harsher prison sentences for the sale of crack than other drugs.

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Filed under Brazil, News brief, Security

More Brazilian pressure on Paraguay?

Brazilian defence minister Celso Amorim has just launched Operation Ágata 5, sending 9,000 military personal into the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. The operation is designed to combat organized crime and drug trafficking in the region, which is a serious issue.

Unreported is the extent to which this move will put pressure on the illicit elites in Paraguay who pull the strings of power. Brazil has a long history of selectively enforcing stiff borders in the tri-border region as a mechanism for disciplining Paraguay’s various criminal consortia. That Ángara 5 is being launched so soon after Lugo’s impeachment and the political suspension of Paraguay from Mercosur does create the appearance that serious pressure is being exerted on key sectors of Paraguay to not reverse the democratic gains of the last decade. Keep in mind that Celso Amorim was Lula’s foreign minister for eight years and is thus very familiar with the strategies and tactics used to control the Guarani republic.

–Sean Burges

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Filed under Analysis, Brazil, Democracy, News brief, Paraguay, Security